Thursday, July 06, 2006

Osama bin Laden—Increased Activity

Communications from Osama bin Laden, including video and audio messages posted on the internet, have drastically increased over the past month.[1] At the same time this is happening, it has been revealed that the CIA has shut down its unit that is tasked with capturing bin Laden.[2]

Reflecting the view that Al Qaeda is “no longer as hierarchical as it once was,” the unit, known as Alec Station, “was disbanded late last year and its analysts reassigned within the CIA Counterterrorist Center.”[3] This does not mean that finding Osama bin Laden does not remain a high priority; it simply means that there is a “belief that the agency can better deal with high-level [] threats by focusing on regional trends rather than on specific organizations or individuals.”[4]

In the past month, however, Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, have released at least six new communiqués.[5] It is unclear, however, whether the increased activity suggests that “another major attack is imminent.”[6] Some US officials “believe a complicated mix of factors is behind the outpouring: a desire to show that al Qaeda is still potent; a new sophistication in the use of propaganda; and finally, sheer coincidence as several different messages have all surfaced within a short time span.”[7] Nonetheless, the threats are taken seriously.

In related news, we mentioned a month that Mogadishu had been taken over by Islamic rebels who have been combating the Somali warlords for control over the capitol. There are now allegations that “non-Somalis have joined with Islamic extremists in Somalia.”[8] According to the AP, a one-hour-long “recruiting video issued by members of the fundamentalist Islamic movement in Somalia shows Arab radicals fighting alongside the local extremists in Mogadishu, and invites Muslims from around the world to join in their ‘holy jihad.’”[9] The videotape was apparently produced as a recruitment tool, and if it is accurate, seems to suggest that there is an “Arab camp north of Mogadishu,” and a “senior member of the Islamic group, Yusuf Indohaadde, is filmed walking among” Somali militiamen.[10] It will be quite interesting to see what the fallout of the tape is.


[1] Caroline Drees, , Reuters, Jul. 6, 2006.
[2] Mark Mazzetti, , NY Times, Jul. 4, 2006.
[3] Id.
[4] Id.
[5] Drees, supra note 1.
[6] Id.
[7] Id.
[8] , AP (via St. Petersburg Times), Jul. 7, 2006.
[9] Id.
[10] Id.

posted by McNabb Associates, P.C. @ 5:08 PM