Failing Nations—World Bank List

Concerned about nations which might become “breeding grounds” for “global terrorism,” the World Bank has released a list of “fragile” countries.^[1] Perhaps unsurprisingly, the number of such “weak and poorly governed nations” has spiked over the past three years, “despite increased Western efforts to improve conditions in such states.”^[2]

In 2003, there were 17 “fragile” countries; this year, there are 26.^[3] While five countries have made it off the list, “14 made new appearances, including Nigeria and seven other African countries, Kosovo, Cambodia, East Timor, and the West Bank and Gaza. Twelve states, including Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan,” made both the 2003 and the 2006 lists.^[4]

These countries are “[h]ome to almost 500 million people, roughly half of whom earn less than a dollar a day.”^[5] These 26 nations are further subdivided into two categories: “Core LICUS” and “Severe LICUS.”^[6] (LICUS stands for Low-Income Country Under Stress; the term has recently been replaced by the term “fragile state.”^[7]) The World Bank “use[s] two criteria to define core and severe LICUS: per capita income within the threshold of International Development Association (IDA) eligibility, and performance of 3.0 or less on both the overall Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating and on the CPIA rating for Public Sector Management and Institutions.”^[8] “Severe” LICUS have an overall and governance CPIA of 2.5 or less; "core" LICUS have an overall and governance CPIA of 2.6–3.0.^[9] Most of these countries “have poor governance, are embroiled in extended internal conflicts or are struggling through tenuous post-conflict transitions, and face similar hurdles of widespread lack of security, fractured revelations among societal groups, significant corruption, breakdown in the rule of law, absence of mechanisms for generating legitimate power and authority, a huge backlog of investment needs, and limited government resources for development.”^[10]

The report makes three “crucial recommendations to assist fragile states more effectively”: first, “go beyond band aids” and follow up assistance with “an increased investment in developing local capacity”; second, “move forward in manageable steps” because overly ambitious reform agendas “are rarely successful in fragile states”; and finally, “avoid the creation of aid-orphans and aid-darlings” by not over- or under-assisting fragile nations.”^[11]

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[1] Karen DeYoung, World Bank Lists Failing Nations That Can Breed Global Terrorism, Washington Post, Sep. 15, 2006.
[2] Id.
[3] Id.
[4] Id.
[5] Independent Evaluation Group, Background, World Bank, last visited Sep. 15, 2006.
[6] Id., Which Countries are LICUS?, last visited Sep. 15, 2006. There is a third category, dubbed “marginal”; there seem to be no marginal LICUS this year.
[7] Id.
[8] Id.
[9] Id.
[10] IEG, Engaging with Fragile States: Conference Edition 1, Sep. 2006.
[11] IEG, Press Release: Number of Countries at Risk of Collapse Shows Little Change 2, Sep. 14, 2006.